Another year has come to an end. There are those who reflect on these past twelve months while others prefer to look to the year ahead. We of Renewable Matter, who by nature are always looking at the big picture, have tried to isolate the ten major themes that, having emerged throughout the course of 2023, will most likely be at the center of political, economic, and social discussion in 2024. That means technology and its ever-changing and innovative potential, the politics surrounding our climate, finance, and other such phenomena that have since gone global, whether for better or for worse.

Some of these topics will be addressed throughout the year in the monographic issues of our magazine, but for each and every one of them there will nevertheless be articles or other in-depth analyses available on our website.
In the meantime, here is our list of the ten hottest words of the still very new year.

AI

Without a doubt THE word of 2024. Everyone is talking about it, many are looking to hop on the bandwagon at the prospects of a technology with profoundly transformative potential, and others are leery of its risks.

But if we’re being honest, albeit this last year the introduction of OpenAI and its fellow ChatGPT transformed artificial intelligence into a cultural phenomenon, machine learning, deep learning, and generative AI have actually been around for a lot longer than you realize. They’ve been used quite successfully, for instance, in many branches of scientific research: from medicine to pharmaceuticals, material to nuclear science, climatology to biology. They have been exploited by industrial processes, infrastructure management, the planning of renewable energies, and in forecasting the risks of extreme events. They have even been used for rather controversial purposes in the military field or for crime prevention.

There are some, like Google DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis, who speak of AI as though it were “a multiplier of human intelligence”, capable of propelling us towards a new scientific Renaissance, whereas others, like Elon Musk, are much less optimistic, warning of the alleged dangers of “existential risk” for all humankind. Only one thing is certain: with great power comes great responsibility, and the unprecedented potential of AI needs to be regulated. As we see the European Union has already begun to take steps to ensure its safe, sustainable, equitable, and responsible further development.

In the meantime, the first thing to do is to understand: that's why Renewable Matter’s 2024 will open with an issue devoted to AI and cutting-edge technologies.

Air conditioning

2023 was the hottest year in history, that is, since we first began to record the Earth’s temperature. Before that, it was 2022, and more than likely that record will be broken in 2024.

In the case of extreme events becoming all the more frequent and heatwaves likewise becoming more intense, air conditioning is a strategy for adaptation and survival, considering extreme heat can be fatal. This strategy, however, creates a vicious circle. According to IRENA, constant heating and cooling are responsible for about half of final global energy consumption, which translates to 40% of energy-related emissions. The demand for cooling systems is expected to increase by 45% by 2050. This is in addition to the issue of energy poverty, meaning that those who may require air conditioning the most to survive may lack the financial means to install it.

So how do we align adaptation and mitigation without compromising social justice? To this end, one of the challenges of the new year will be green cooling: cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies, the use of alternative refrigerants in place of HFCs (which drastically impact climate change) urban forestation, green building practices, and the implementation of policies that fight against energy poverty.

Carbon Capture and Storage

In the wake of its “blowing up” at COP28, Carbon Capture technology, the storage and use of carbon dioxide more commonly known as CCS, has entered the ring of political debate. After years of being classified as an experimental or pilot technology, the last two have finally provided us with the first industrial-scale plants that have propelled the argument to the forefront of discussion.

“The fossil fuel sector is constantly promoting CCS as the miraculous solution that can contain and even eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. An enticing solution to keep things just as they are, securing the status quo and continuing to put money in the pockets of fossil fuel companies while the rest of us hurtle towards climate catastrophe”, as said by Catherine Abreu of E3G.

While there is certainly a generated interest and the prospect of hope, at the moment “the stories surrounding CCS are more so those of failure”, as stated by the International Energy Agency, known for its impartiality. Nevertheless, ENI has invested significantly in Ravenna’s CCS project, where captured carbon dioxide will ultimately be stored 2,500 meters underground, permanently. With such a sensitive matter as this at hand, should we be exploring as many options as possible or focusing instead on those that work better and are more sustainable and energy efficient?

Elections

The year 2024 will be the “highest polled” yet. Over 2 billion citizens have been called to vote, with three key electoral campaigns that could greatly impact the fruits of our environmental and social labor: the USA, the EU, and India. From June 6th to 9th 400 million Europeans will cast their votes for the new Parliament and decide which commissioner will lead phase two of the Green Deal; however, the far-right poses a serious threat, potentially jeopardizing efforts towards environmental and social promise.

In the USA, the daunting presence of Trump slowly makes a comeback, vehemently against any mention of climate change and himself a bit of a wildcard, whereas Biden approaches November 4th tired and unpopular, despite the prospects of his Inflation Reduction Act. In India, the return of Modi is considered inevitable, and the hyper-nationalist has already pledged that coal will remain a primary source of energy for the country in the years to come.

Other noteworthy campaigns, namely for their geopolitical impact, will be in Indonesia, Belarus, Iran, Russia, and Taiwan. Voting will also be held in the UK (where Sunak will seek to consolidate his power) and Portugal, where the Socialist Party looks to leader Pedro Nuno Santos. The future of the environment lies in the outcome of these elections.

Green and Climate Finance

For our working professionals, 2024 means climate finance. Where are we headed: the COP29 on climate of Azerbaijan in November. What’s on the agenda: the restoration of carbon markets, the Adaptation Fund, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance to mobilize billions of dollars from 2025 for developing countries, the Loss and Damage Fund, Non-market mechanisms, and so on and so forth.

In October, the primary focus will be on the resources for biodiversity regarding the Montreal-Kunming Agreement; however, at the moment all eyes are on the spring meetings surrounding Multilateral Development Banks, where there is the need to accelerate internal reforms, reevaluate new tools, and review crediting mechanisms of current policy guidelines. This topic is also expected to be at the center of the G7 forum (and here a huge responsibility rests on the shoulders of Italy to guide its fellow members) as well as that of the G20 led by Brasil, who has promised to utilize all of its diplomatic power to address the issue of debt at hand. These important decisions will affect central and commercial banks and the entire financial sector. For ESG, this will be a year of growth and maturity. No more joking around; it’s time to get serious. Posers, you have been warned.

Inflation

In 2023, inflation was driven by the rising cost of food, raw materials, and energy, a result of geopolitical instability, the impacts of climate, and an overall surge in demand brought on at the start of 2022, consequently a side effect of stimulus plans around the world following COVID. Albeit inflation is beginning to slow down, it will remain a primary concern in 2024. According to the OECD, global production, while highly fragmented, will also slow down in 2024 due to high-interest rates, calming inflation, but also impeding economic growth. This will, however, favor sustainable and circular enterprises, which will benefit from preferential credit channels and more faith expressed by investors.

Keep a close watch on food cost: 2024 will see record temperatures and prolonged droughts as political instability persists throughout the Middle East and Ukraine. Escalation in the Gulf could potentially drive up the price of oil and gas, throwing a wrench into Europe’s plans after having decided to go with the Arab world/countries instead of Russia as its main oil supplier. Last but not least, all eyes are on China: the bounceback following three years of an economic slowdown has yet to make an appearance. Is there a risk of a Chinese recession?

Nature-based solutions

Nature-based solutions (NBS) encompass a wide range of undertakings, which utilize characteristics of nature and biodiversity in an effort to address social, environmental, and economic challenges, including those posed by climate and the Sustainable Development Goals. From the use of natural systems for soil regeneration to mangroves that attempt to fight off coastal erosion, agroecology to seaweed planting, the reintegration of megafauna to the

renaturalization of streams and rivers, from natural urban greenery to the protection of its fellow pollinators, the list of measures to prioritize and implement in corporate, regional, and domestic plans of action is fundamental.

In 2024, countries will have the opportunity to officially declare which NBS they intend to adopt to their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans, meaning the strategies and plans for biodiversity that each nation must present come October in Bogotá for the COP16 on Biodiversity. For the time being, Italy has yet to submit its own plans. Not much is to be expected of MASE, considering its hesitancy on the matter; nevertheless, NBS are essential to climate mitigation and adaptation. The hope is that the climate and environmental movement will place this word at the center of political focus.

Nuclear

Both accomplice in the global energy crisis and increasingly necessary for decarbonization, nuclear energy has made its way back to the forefront of discussion, such that 22 countries, led by France and the United States, signed a petition to triple its production by 2050 during the COP28 in Dubai. But even if nuclear power is now considered by many to be indispensable to decarbonization in the energy sector, there are still some rather significant obstacles that need addressing, namely three: safety, waste, and costs.

Today, according to estimates provided by the IEA, about 10% of global electricity is produced by nuclear power plants. There are currently 436 active reactors dispersed throughout 32 countries, 93 of which can be found in the US alone while 56 reside in France. And while some countries have announced the permanent shutting down of their facilities, Germany for instance, or a gradual moving away from nuclear power, such as Spain, there are those countries which have conversely taken great initiative to construct new ones, like China, which according to the World Nuclear Association has 25 new reactors in the works.

As for Italy, the country is (re)thinking it over. Having stepped away from nuclear power in the historic 1987 referendum, the country is however far from holding back in terms of research with Minister Pichetto Fratin having launched the National Platform for Sustainable Nuclear Power in September. Meanwhile, radioactive waste from decommissioned power plants remains to be sorted out and has been there for more than 30 years.  Who knows if 2024 will finally be the year.

Transitioning away

“Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. These two lines are the historical result of the COP28 in Dubai: a climate conference that seemed to be headed for the worst, but admittedly had a rather surprising turn of events.

Presided by an oilman with a record number of Oil and Gas industry lobbyists and heavy restrictions on activist protests, COP28 will go down in history for at least two reasons: the first being the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund for countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate, and the second, for the first time ever, an unmistakable reference to the moving away from fossil fuels. Not exactly the cut-and-dried phase out we had been hoping for, but a veiled transitioning away. It will take some time, but at least we have finally admitted that fossil energy sources are a problem.

“We came here to build a canoe together”, the Marshall Islands representative declared. “Instead, we now have one that is full of holes, but we must still put it in the water.” It seems that this canoe in its transitioning away will be leading the way for climate action in 2024.

War

This word, unfortunately, has never gone out of style, and with the final months of 2023 and the sudden outburst of tragedy in Gaza, its horrors once again dominated headlines everywhere. Whether full-scale or under the radar, it’s no surprise that more armed conflict around the world goes unnoticed by the media rather than not, and estimates show, based on categorization, that this number varies anywhere from 50 to 180 (at one time). According to international observances, war zones that should demand most of our attention to date, in addition to Gaza, include Ukraine, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Myanmar.

An issue that concerns not only the resulting crisis on humanity but also impacts climate policies and plans for sustainable development. War and climate are closely intertwined: if the effects of climate crisis contribute to aggravating conflicts, the devastation of war, even once brought to an end, will only destroy, alongside countless infrastructures and crops, any chance of adaptation or resilience these people may have.

Geopolitical instability also redirects national investments (even for countries outside of war zones) towards weapons and defense at the expense of environmental sustainability initiatives and development cooperation. To top it all off, as calculated by the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS), the global military sector now has a staggering carbon footprint of 2,750 million tons of CO2eq, equivalent to 5.5% of global emissions.

This article is also available in italian / Questo articolo è disponibile anche in italiano

Image: Ann Savchenko, Unsplash

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