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A flurry of measures and proclamations marked Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th President of the United States. Almost everything he had promised − or threatened − on matters of the environment, climate, and energy appeared, to varying extents and with differing legal weight, in the myriad of executive actions publicly signed in the wake of the ceremony.

From the United States' renewed withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to the removal (which may not be possible to implement) of incentives for purchasing electric vehicles and restrictions on buying combustion engine cars. From halting the development of wind farms to the relaunch of gas and oil drilling everywhere, even in protected areas.

The allocation of over 300 billion dollars in green infrastructure funds, previously earmarked by the Biden administration, has been put on hold. Not mentioning import tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as those targeting the BRICS nations (meaning China and India) and Europe, the new president went so far as to implement a measure that effectively rules out the regulation of artificial intelligence.

It is difficult not to foresee a profound impact of the second Trump presidency on global climate and energy scenarios, just as it will on geopolitical power relations. However, it remains to be seen − and will only become clear in the months ahead − how much of this will solidify into tangible actions and how much will dissipate as mere rhetoric and suggestions.

What we can state is that the escalating climate crisis, the parallel acceleration of the energy transition, and the gradual shift of global power from the United States to Asia − specifically towards China and India − are defining forces of the 21st century that will continue to operate in the background of what we will see on the apron stage. Powerful thrusts, with such a strong inertia, that it would be naïve to imagine they could be halted or reversed within the span of a single political term.

The executive orders signed by Trump

Let us take a brief look at the measures signed by Donald Trump on the very day of his inauguration. Let's start with the declaration of a “national energy emergency”, aimed at eliminating some regulations that had obstructed the construction of fossil fuel infrastructure, such as gas pipelines and nuclear facilities. This step is expected to bring “a new era of energy prosperity” for the US.

This is followed by the second withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement on the global climate emergency, which, according to the president, would impose unfair economic restrictions on the United States to the advantage of China. “I’m immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord ripoff,” declared Trump, adding that “the United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity”. Some interpretations suggest that all funding provided by the US under the Climate Convention but outside the framework of the Paris Agreement would also be withdrawn, such as the contributions pledged to the poorest nations through the Loss and Damage Fund.

Thirdly, the approval of new offshore wind energy projects has been halted. “The US is blessed with oil and gas and we’re going to use it. We’re not going to do the wind thing,” said President Trump, according to whom “big ugly windmills” harm whales, ruin landscapes, and kill birds.

Fourth, restrictions on offshore oil and gas concessions, which had effectively prohibited drilling in most US coastal waters, were lifted as part of a comprehensive overhaul of fossil fuel policies. Additionally, a range of changes were introduced to encourage the extraction of oil, natural gas, and critical minerals in Alaska.

Fifth, Trump has instructed his administration to explore the removal of subsidies and other policies that favour electric vehicles. The directive specifically targets exemptions that enable states to limit the sale of petrol-powered cars.

Sixth, the US will withdraw from the World Health Organisation (WHO), resulting in a reduction of approximately 15% in the WHO’s budget, a significant portion of which is allocated to vital health programmes.

Finally, regarding artificial intelligence, Trump overturned a 2023 executive order by Joe Biden, which required AI developers to share security test results with the government before the public release of their systems.

He also unveiled a substantial investment in AI through a joint venture named Stargate, with an initial budget of 100 billion dollars, potentially rising to 500 billion dollars. The project, involving companies such as OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, aims to develop cutting-edge AI infrastructure in the US, including the construction of new data centres and campuses for OpenAI.

Trump's tariffs and Europe's response

Are the markets not concerned about tariffs? It seems not. On Wednesday, the 22nd of January, there was no significant tension in the financial markets. Little, if anything, occurred following Donald Trump's latest remarks, which targeted Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs, announced a likely 10% tariff on Chinese products, and proposed equally severe tariffs on European goods. "The European Union is very, very bad to us. So they're going to be in for tariffs. It's the only way ... you're going to get fairness,” he declared.

From the World Economic Forum in Davos, ECB President Christine Lagarde swiftly responded, stating that in Europe, we must be prepared and know how to respond. When asked if the EU has the strength to withstand the impact of new trade barriers, Lagarde highlighted that EU countries have significant untapped potential, particularly in further developing the internal market. Lagarde pointed out that Trump’s objectives remain somewhat unclear, adding that the notion of replacing European imports with US domestic production "is questionable." Regardless, she emphasised that "dialogue must continue."

Also, on Tuesday, the 21st of January, in Paris, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, received by Emmanuel Macron, remarked that "the Trump presidency will be a challenge for Europe." Yesterday morning, at the European Parliament plenary session in Strasbourg, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that in 2025, “we have entered a new era of harsh geostrategic competition. We are dealing with continent-sized powers. And they engage with each other based mostly on interests. This new dynamic will dominate more and more the relations between global actors. The rules of engagement are shifting. Some in Europe may not like this new reality, but we must deal with it. Our values do not change, but to defend them, some things must change”.

Should the Trump administration follow through on its threat of new tariffs on European products, EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said, “if there is a need to defend our economic interests, we will be responding in a proportionate way, just as we did during the first Trump administration.”

The United States: between perplexity and hope

In the United States, Albert Gore, director of the Zero Emission Transportation Association, noted that “America’s electric vehicle and battery supply chain has already created more than 240,000 American jobs and attracted more than 182 billion dollars of private investment commitments, empowering economic growth in every corner of the country. These executive orders contain some opportunities for securing mineral supply chains, along with the risk of undercutting growth in battery and vehicle manufacturing here at home.”

According to Thomas Hohne-Sparborth, Head of Sustainability Research at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, "the environmental transition will continue, even in this new political landscape. The focus may shift from climate and decarbonisation to themes such as innovation, infrastructure, and affordability − two sides of the same coin. The administration could support the development of self-driving, which, though not motivated by environmental objectives, would indirectly foster the diffusion of electric vehicles. Furthermore, prioritising the return of strategic industries to the US could open up opportunities in sectors like semiconductors, batteries, and other key areas."

Lastly, the comment of Jeff Ordower, North America Director of 350.org: “In the lead up to this day, we knew that President Trump’s policies would represent a direct threat to the climate and to marginalised communities. But we refuse to give in to despair; history shows us that people can, and will, rise to meet these challenges. Every fraction of a degree matters in this fight for a safe future, and we will continue to hold the line for solutions that center on justice and resilience. By building community, both locally and globally, we draw strength from the renewed determination among climate activists worldwide.”

Cover: Donald Trump photographed by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr