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The climate crisis, biodiversity loss, and pollution are just some of the factors affecting the fishing sector in Europe and will increasingly do so in the future. It is therefore crucial to assess and anticipate the role of fishermen in society by 2050, as well as to address the emerging challenges already impacting the sector today. To this end, the findings of the Fishers of the Future foresight study − a participatory project launched by the European Commission − were presented in Brussels on the 14th of January. The study, which engaged the 22 coastal states of the EU, began in October 2023 under the previous Commission and was completed last December.

The consequences of the climate crisis on fisheries

Commissioned by the European Climate, Infrastructure, and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA) and the Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (DG MARE), the study sought to foster a shared understanding of the future challenges and opportunities facing the sector through direct dialogue with fishermen. As highlighted by Costas Kadis, European Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans, the findings “will help us address our biggest challenge: how to ensure long-term competitiveness and sustainability for the fishing sector.”

Factors like the severity of the climate crisis and changes in marine biodiversity shaped the four future scenarios outlined in the study. According to the IPCC, the ocean has absorbed between 25 and 30% of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, reducing the build-up of CO₂ in the atmosphere but at the same time causing phenomena such as ocean acidification, with serious effects on marine biodiversity.

The most severe consequences are felt by organisms with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons, such as corals, oysters, clams, and mussels, threatening the balance of entire ecosystems and the sustainability of fisheries. Furthermore, approximately 90% of the heat absorbed by the climate system is stored in the ocean. Alongside changes in the chemistry of seawater, rising temperatures are driving species migration to higher latitudes, disrupting key ecosystems, and diminishing fishing productivity.

An increasingly warming sea

According to data presented by Copernicus in early January, 2024 marked the first solar year to surpass pre-industrial temperature levels by 1.5°C, with the ocean following a similarly alarming trend. A study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences has shown that the ocean has reached its highest recorded temperature, not only at the surface but also for the upper 2000 metres.

“We have several concrete scenarios and profiles to consider. As we shape our policy in the coming months, we must take into account the trends and potential challenges described and leverage this knowledge to secure a thriving sector and a healthy marine environment for generations to come,” points out Costas Kadis, highlighting the importance of data-driven strategic planning to meet future challenges.  

One example is the North Sea, which stretches along the coast of north-western Europe, and has long been one of the most heavily exploited marine environments, enduring the effects of overfishing, pollution, oil extraction, and climate change. Yet, as The Guardian reports, many marine species are making a return to these waters − likely due to the introduction of new marine protected areas and stricter fishing regulations. This underscores the critical role that forward-thinking policies play in securing the long-term sustainability of Europe’s fishing industry.

The four possible future scenarios for European fisheries

“We identified two main drivers, that will shape the future of fisheries”, explains Macarena Davies, lead coordinator of the consortium for the Fishers of the Future study conducted by Tetra Tech, a consulting and engineering company. “The first being climate change and changes in marine ecosystems and the second being consumer demand for fish and seafood. From these, along with other factors that will influence future changes, the project developed four scenarios: Thriving Responsibly, Chasing Declining Stocks, Contested Markets, Scarcity and Survival."

In an optimistic scenario, global warming is moderate, and demand for European fish rises due to consumers' sustainability awareness. Advanced technologies and robust fish stocks provide a competitive edge, enabling both small and large companies to flourish in a stable and resilient market. However, a more challenging scenario could unfold if the effects of extreme weather intensify. Fish stocks may decline drastically, and despite the quality and sustainability of European fish, high prices could drive many consumers towards cheaper alternatives. Meanwhile, fishermen would have to compete for increasingly scarce resources.

In a context of reduced demand for European fish and moderate climate impacts, the situation would evolve differently: the decline in purchasing power would favour cheaper imports and alternative proteins, forcing European fishermen to innovate and specialise in niche markets. Again, international competition would pose a challenge to the survival and competitiveness of the sector.

The final scenario paints the most dire picture. A combination of the severe impacts of the climate crisis, collapsing fish stocks, and a low demand for European fish would push the fishing industry into an unprecedented crisis. Small-scale fishermen would be hit hardest, leaving entire communities grappling with socio-economic hardship, while larger fleets would be forced to consolidate to survive an increasingly hostile economic and environmental scenario.

For each scenario developed in the study, the profiles of future fishermen were outlined, both for small-scale and large-scale operations. “The scenarios are the context, but the main result of this study are the profiles of fishermen, and that is where socio-economic aspects appear,” Davies explains. “The type of support fishermen will require varies significantly across the EU.”

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