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Trade wars with China, an assault on the European Green Deal, the future of UN Earth negotiations, energy challenges, the revival of the global circular economy, anti-ESG campaigns, the restructuring of multilateral development banks, the Trump-Musk duo's at the White House... this is enough to leave one feeling dizzy as we open the 2025 dossiers on the 3^rd of January, following a complex year that saw a significant pushback from anti-transition forces, the rise of the AI revolution, and a growing sense of geopolitical instability.

The list of topics that Renewable Matter will need to tackle in 2025 is more intricate than ever, shaped by both global and local challenges. The transition has undeniably entered its mature phase, marked by relentless attacks on renewables, electric vehicles, EU regulations, and UN negotiations on climate, biodiversity, and desertification. Yet innovation continues and segments of the global industrial sector remain resolute in defending the progress achieved in reducing environmental and social impacts. The current slowdown in the transition is merely cyclical and is expected to last only a couple of years. These, then, are the pressing issues we will be following as 2025 unfolds.

The global transition does not stop

On the global stage, the ramifications of the Trump presidency and the tariff war between the US, China, and the European Union will rank among the most important stories to watch, given the profound impacts it will have on the manufacturing and agribusiness sectors. From the 20th of January, the day of the new US presidential inauguration, all eyes will be on Washington to see what proposals will emerge and how will Beijing respond. China, already preparing to bolster its manufacturing sector, has announced a 5% growth target − an ambition achievable only through a robust stimulus plan.

Meanwhile, US ESG finance is set to cool down further, providing a temporary boost to the oil and gas sector for at least a few years. This shift will be supported by the activism of major American anti-woke investors, with some ripple effects likely to be felt in European markets. However, by the second half of the year, the economic risks of this U-turn will become increasingly apparent.

In Europe, the attention is centred on the Green Deal 2.0, meaning the Clean Industrial Deal, set to be debated by the Commission on the 26th of February alongside the omnibus simplification package. These efforts, combined with the Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act designed to support businesses through the transition, aim to align industrial and decarbonisation policies outlined in the Draghi Report on competitiveness. The challenge lies in addressing Europe's weakest areas − batteries, photovoltaics, heat pumps, electric vehicles, and the supply of critical raw materials − to boost the European manufacturing sector and stimulate domestic demand. It will be interesting to see whether the tariff war will be a boosting element for domestic markets.

COP, 2030 is close by

The first major milestone in global environmental diplomacy will be the conclusion of discussions on biodiversity finance under the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), set to take place in Rome from the 25th to the 27th of February. COP16 Bis offers Italy a prime opportunity to place biodiversity at the forefront of political and media attention. Central to the agenda is the resource mobilisation strategy, which aims to secure 200 billion dollars annually for biodiversity initiatives by 2030 (with at least 20 billion dollars by 2025) and to cut harmful incentives by at least 500 billion dollars per year within the same timeframe.

With just five years remaining, the GBF still lacks the metrics needed to track progress by signatory countries (the US is not among them). The year 2025 will be pivotal, not only for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) but also for evaluating the progress of the Paris Agreement, just five years away from 2030, the symbolic deadline for anyone working on transforming the economy and society. This makes the COP30 climate change negotiations, set to take place in Belém, Brazil, all the more critical. At this summit, nations will be expected to announce new national decarbonisation targets − a step Brazil and the United States have already taken, despite Trump’s pledge to withdraw Washington from the Paris Agreement.

For Brazil’s President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, “COP30 will be our last chance to avoid an irreversible rupture in the climate system.” The negotiations in Belém will address not only the energy transition but also the roles of deforestation, climate finance, nature-based solutions, and biodiversity protection in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental diplomacy has never been under greater threat, making the defence of green multilateralism a political imperative in 2025.

Batteries: full speed ahead

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2025, approximately 80 gigawatts (GW) of new grid-based energy storage will be installed globally − an eightfold increase compared to 2021. Driving this surge are the growth of photovoltaic self-generation and consistently falling costs, (prices have fallen by 97% since 1991), and household storage batteries are expected to reach cost parity with vehicle batteries. The market will also be transformed by new sodium-ion technologies, which will complement traditional lithium-ion batteries.

Sodium, an abundant, inexpensive, and readily accessible material, eliminates the need for critical materials like cobalt and nickel, thereby lowering production costs and reducing environmental impacts. While lithium will remain the preferred choice for the automotive sector due to its lower energy density, sodium batteries offer notable advantages in thermal stability and safety. These attributes make them particularly well-suited for stationary applications, such as storing renewable energy from solar and wind power plants, where weight is less critical. China is set to dominate this technology, with companies like CATL ready to introduce the first market-ready products in 2025, primarily targeting storage systems and budget electric vehicles.

Nature-based solutions, future-proof companies, and regenerative approaches

As terms like “green” and “sustainable” fade into the background, more concrete, resilience-focused approaches − such as future-proofing, the commitment to ecosystem-based solutions and soil regeneration (but we are also starting to see them applied in communities!) − are steadily becoming mainstream. Startups and consulting companies offering support to large corporations interested in incorporating these principles and solutions into their strategy, always paying attention to economic feasibility and return on investment timescales, are thriving.

We can expect increasing research and application of these methods, both at the urban and territorial scales and within large companies and SMEs. The most reluctant sector? Agribusiness, which, despite its hesitance, stands to gain the most in the medium to long term, as evidenced by countries like Brazil.

Image: Envato