China, the country with the biggest impact on climate, is changing the way it sets its climate targets. Beijing will gradually shift from an energy consumption reduction system that penalises renewables to a dual emission control mechanism, i.e. recording carbon intensity per unit of GDP and the volume of total greenhouse gas emissions.
On Friday 2 August, the National Development and Reform Commission unveiled the plan that should redefine China's decarbonisation trajectory, at least in its targets and reporting methodology. Reaching peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality by 2060 are the climate targets set by President Xi Jinping in September 2020. Now the country needs to pick up the pace.
What changes with the dual emission control mechanism
According to UN regulations, by 10 February 2025 each country must submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), i.e. declare how it intends to contribute to collective climate mitigation efforts for the next 10 years. "Thanks to the dual control system, for the first time we will see China enter an NDC that contains an absolute target related to carbon dioxide emissions," Li Shuo, a climate expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute think tank, told Agence France-Presse. According to Yao Zhe, an analyst at Greenpeace China, this new approach will help align domestic climate action with international commitments.
China’s plan states that from 2026 onwards, the statistical accounting system for carbon emissions will be updated and improved, several standards for accounting the CO₂ emissions of enterprises and products will be introduced and implemented, and the national greenhouse gas inventory will be completed. In short, the Chinese government is setting the table for the new dual emission control mechanism.
Climate targets aimed at reducing energy consumption are no longer relevant to China's energy transition. Especially because paradoxically, they also place limits on renewable energy production. Limiting the amount of energy consumed without considering carbon intensity also severely penalises heavy industries that aim to consume clean energy. The issue was already raised in 2021 at the Central Economic Work Conference, the annual meeting that sets the national economic agenda.
Will a renewables boom put China back on track?
China's 2020-2025 decarbonisation plan already includes a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 18%. However, according to the think tank CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air), the progress made so far is not enough. Post-pandemic growth has incentivised high-carbon footprint development patterns that have pushed China away from the target.
The energy sector is responsible for almost 90 percent of the country's greenhouse gas emissions, but there are promising signs, such as the extraordinary pace of wind and solar farms installations. According to a report by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), China is building 339 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale wind and solar power, accounting for 64% of global projects. This, the report's authors say, would lend credibility to the country’s goal of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. Beijing is also on track to meet its target of installing 1,200 GW of wind and solar power six years ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, cement and steel production declined due to the collapse of the real estate sector, suggesting that Chinese emissions may have peaked as early as the first quarter of this year, before trending downward in the second quarter.
Given the industrial and demographic weight of the People's Republic of China, it is not all that surprising to find seemingly counterintuitive records and statistics: while the country's production of photovoltaic panels breaks new records, over 60% of electricity is still generated by burning coal; while China's electric vehicle battery industry dominates the global market, Beijing is the world's second largest consumer of oil. Peculiarities of a country of almost 1.5 billion inhabitants, without whose contribution any effort to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C will be in vain.
This article is also available in Italian / Questo articolo è disponibile anche in italiano
Cover image: Shicheng village, Envato